First round of Wimbledon begins and the level of play should be through the roof!
I’ve found value in two of Monday’s matchups – Sorribes Tormo vs Trevisan and Kasatkina vs Dolehide.
Read on for my 2023 Wimbledon expert picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on watching Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Expert Picks
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-300) vs Martina Trevisan (+240)
8:00 a.m. ET
Sara Sorribes Tormo made most recently round of 16 in Valencia before falling to Sara Errani. But while Sorribes Tormo doesn’t come to Wimbledon with a ton of grass preparation this season, she has a solid 21-17 career– record on the surface.
Sorribes Tormo is much better known for his clay court success with over 350 matches played on clay, but the Spaniard can effectively adapt his game to grass. Her rally tolerance on grass is higher than most as she is able to handle the bad rejections and still hit targets. She also absorbs tempo and counters effectively on the surface.
Her variety, especially her cutting backhand slice, is potent on grass. She forces her opponents to hit lots of shots out of their strike zones.
Martina Trevisan recently played in Bad Homburg, lose 4-6, 2-6 to Alize Cornet in her opening match. Trevisan won only 40% of his service points and was broken six times. The Italian won 62% of her second-serve returns and broke three times, but she won just 30% of her first-serve returns.
Trevisan is just 1-9 on grass as one professional. The Italian has a heavy left forehand that typically dictates baseline play. The problem for Trevisan on grass is that her forehand doesn’t cut through the court on grass and she has a long windup on her forehand so opponents can rush her. Trevisan struggles much more with his rally tolerance on grass and needs the ball in his attacking zone to remain consistent. Trevisan’s backhand, while always a bit of a liability, is even more on grass.
Sorribes Tormo has much more grass experience and can better adapt his game to the faster, lower bouncing surface. The Spaniard is able to maintain most of his consistency on grass and handle the varying bounces.
And Sorribes Tormo’s excellent direction on her groundstrokes should ensure she targets Trevisan’s backhand.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo 2-0 (-110 via FanDuel)
Daria Kasatkina (-880) vs. Caroline Dolehide (+580)
10:00 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina made it to the Eastbourne final, but he lost 2-6, 6-7(13) to Madison Keys. Kasatkina won only 50% of her service points and was broken four times. Despite winning just 30% of her first-serve returns, the Russian won 65% of her second-serve returns and broke twice.
Kasatkina is now an impressive 25-15 on grass for her career. While the Russian lacks some power, she is largely able to adapt her game to the surface. Kasatkina gets consistent depth on grass and she is so comfortable moving on the surface. This allows Kasatkina to keep points alive before eventually turning around. In addition, Kasatkina sometimes incorporates excellent touch shots and slices that keep her opponents off balance.
Caroline Dolehide fell 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-7(3) to Madison Brengle in the Eastbourne qualifier. Despite winning 67% of her first serves, Dolehide won just 38% of her second serves and was broken on five occasions. In addition, the American won 44% of his return points and broke six times.
Dolehide is only 11-16 on grass as one professionalbut has lost her last six matches on the surface. While Dolehide has a big first serve, her second serve is sitting up in the box. Dolehide tries to dictate with her powerful forehand, but sometimes she can overemphasize topspin, which is less effective on grass. Additionally, Dolehide’s backhand is erratic.
Additionally, Dolehide is not the fastest, most agile mover, both sideways and forward. But when she is able to move forward, the American is strong at the net.
Kasatkina is an excellent returner and should nullify Dolehide’s powerful first serve. Then use her defensive skills and make this a baseline fight.
Dolehide wants to play faster, power-based points where she dominates with her forehand and moves into the net when given the opportunity. However, Kasatkina should not only extend rallies, but has the direction of her groundstrokes to keep the ball on Dolehide’s weaker backhand swing.
And as Dolehide tries to move forward, Kasatkina’s accurate passing shots should make her pay.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-128 via FanDuel)
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