3 Quarterbacks That Are Overrated

The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate with their draft position, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To highlight these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players who should underperform their draft position.

The flip side: See 4 underrated quarterbacks here >>>

Here are the players who received more overrated votes:

And here is how many votes they got with the reasoning.

Player receives 5 votes

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Ben Cummins: Last year, the Cowboys scored the third-most points (467) and their offense ranked eighth in expected points added per game. game. So it was shocking that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was fired. Head coach Mike McCarthy is the new play-caller, and he made his philosophy very clear this offseason by putting a negative spin on statements like “lighting up the scoreboard” and being the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Now 30 years old, Prescott’s rushing upside has been decimated by age and past injuries, and he no longer works with a fantasy-friendly play-caller.

Dan Hindery: Prescott is overrated due to a longstanding misunderstanding of his rushing upside. While putting up decent numbers on the ground his first few seasons, Prescott has averaged just 174.5 rushing yards and 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game. season since 2019. Over the last two years, he has rushed for a total of 328 yards and two touchdowns in 28 games. With little rushing production, Prescott would have to put up massive passing numbers to make a fantasy impact. He’s unlikely to, given what should be a conservative offensive game plan most weeks due to the Cowboys’ elite defense.

Dave Kluge: Prescott had a breakout year in 2019, resulting in many analysts touting him as next year’s potential QB1 in fantasy. An early season ankle injury ended that 2020 campaign and we haven’t seen him return to form. After collecting 24 rushing touchdowns in his first four-and-a-half seasons, he has just two in the two years since returning from injury. Without the threat of scrambling, defenses are more aggressive in their pass-rushing approach, forcing him to throw more interceptions. In addition to declining efficiency, Mike McCarthy’s offense will likely produce fewer pass attempts than we saw under Kellen Moore. A quarterback needs rushing upside or a lot of volume to hit an elite fantasy ceiling. Unfortunately, Prescott doesn’t possess either.

Jason Wood: Kellen Moore played top-five offenses in three of four seasons calling plays in Dallas, including all three healthy seasons with Prescott. Still, egos overtook logic, and Mike McCarthy wanted to regain play-calling as he did with the Packers. Unfortunately, that means we’ve probably already seen the best of Prescott’s years. Coach “doesn’t want to light up the scoreboard” or “be the No. 1 offense in the league.” He wants to “run the damn ball so I can rest my defense.” Here’s the thing, the Cowboys were consistently a top-10 unit in rushing attempts under Moore. But in McCarthy’s 13 seasons in Green Bay, the Packers averaged 20th in rushing attempts. Good luck, Prescott. We will miss you in the ranks of fantasy QB1s.

Andy Hicks: During his first three seasons, Prescott was fantasy gold, recording six rushing touchdowns in each season. He has just one each of the last two years. He has also missed significant time in two of his last three seasons. As he passed the age of 30, his days as a reliable fantasy quarterback are in jeopardy. Other options simply have a higher upside.

Player receives 3 votes

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Jason Wood: The reason you shouldn’t draft Tua Tagovailoa as a starting quarterback in standard leagues has nothing to do with his talent or potential; he possesses both in abundance. Last year, Tagovailoa led the league in touchdown rate (6.3%), yards per game. attempts (8.9) and passing rating (105.5). Unfortunately, he missed parts of six games due to two confirmed concussions and an unconfirmed third. Genuine concerns arose regarding his potential retirement or ability to continue playing. Even if he has been cleared and has confirmed his commitment to the Dolphins, it becomes extremely challenging to construct your fantasy roster around someone who remains vulnerable to a single impactful hit that could sideline him for an extended duration, if not the entire season.

Jeff Bell: Tagovailoa played lights out in Weeks 8 through 10, playing as the primary QB2 in that stretch. But that stretch featured Lions and Bears defenses that ranked 31st and 32nd in yards per carry. allowed attempt. But the rest of his season was average, finishing outside the QB1 ranking in 8 of his 13 games. And then the concussion. Tagovailoa admitted to considering retirement in the offseason after several events in 2022. Add it all up and the risk is too significant at QB11.

Chad Parsons: Tagovailoa is a bigger risk to his market value in the dynasty than in the redraft, but he carries a legitimate season- and possibly career-ending concussion risk every game given his succession of previous concussions. Secondarily, there are some fantasy heavy hitters that are cheaper in redraft costs this year, like Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith and Anthony Richardson’s rushing upside.

Player receives 2 votes

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Ben Cummins: The Browns project to throw more this season and have added weapons to Watson in Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman. After hopefully shaking off the rust last year, Watson could very well turn in a solid season. But Watson wasn’t great when he was on the field to close out 2022, throwing for just 183.7 passing yards per game. game and only 7 touchdowns compared to 5 interceptions. The risk isn’t worth the reward with legitimate studs available before him and proven fantasy producers available after him, such as Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith and Jared Goff.

Gary Davenport: Most fantasy managers seem willing to give Watson a mulligan for last year’s games, and given the length of his holdout/suspension-related absence from the field, that’s understandable. But it’s a risky proposition to just assume that in 2023, Watson will just flip a switch and become the guy he was in 2020, even with the addition of Elijah Moore to Cleveland’s receiver room. We know Cleveland’s offense is predicated on the run game. What we don’t know is how much better Watson will be than the quarterback who struggled in a big way in 2022.

The second 7

There were seven more signal callers who also received attention. Here they are.