Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Wimbledon Odds, Pick

Sabalenka vs Keys Odds

None. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4, 6-0 to advance to the Wimbledon quarter-finals.

But how will Sabalenka fare against Madison Keys’ firepower on serve and from the baseline?

Read on for my expert preview below!

Sabalenka find form on grass

Against Alexandrova, Sabalenka won 77% of her first serves and did not face a break point. In addition, the Belarusian won 49% of her return points, including 58% on Alexandrova’s second serve, breaking the Russian on four occasions.

That World No. 2a former Wimbledon semi-finalistis now a strong 32-17 to her career on grass. Sabalenka took one moment in 2023 to be readjusted to the surface, but she has really excelled at Wimbledon. The Belarusian actually has decreased just one set in London so far, and has won his last six sets.

Sabalenka has a huge first serve that is very difficult to return on any surface, but especially on grass. IN 2023Sabalenka is a top-five player in the following service categories: aces, first serve percentage won, service points won and service games won.

In addition, the Belarusian’s massive groundstroke cuts well through the court and is a nightmare for her opponents to try to defend against. Sabalenka can overwhelm her opponents with pace, dictate from the baseline and force her opponents to play much more defense than they want.

Sabalenka has also come back well, winning over 40% of her return points in all four matches this week. She has broken serve a combined 17 times, generating 43 break points across the nine sets she has played.

The main concern for Sabalenka at this point, as was the case in the first set of her second round match against Gracheva, is if she just can’t find her range from the baseline. When Sabalenka is off, the unforced errors can flow from her racquet, although she has really stabilized off the ground this season compared to years past.

Keys continue with grass success

Keys came back to defeat Mirra Andreeva 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 in the round of 16. She served 71% of her first serves and won 68% of her first-serve points, but she won only 47% of her second serves, being broken on four occasions. The American, despite winning just 33% of her first-serve returns, won 53% of her second-serve returns and was broken four times.

She has a 9-0 record on grass 2023having won a grass court WTA title in Eastbourne the week before Wimbledon. Keys only have decreased the one set (for Andreeva) this grass season, although she has still been playing a lot of tennis lately, with all nine matches coming since June 26.

Keys’ grass court success is far from a recent phenomenon. The American is a spectacular 46-16 on grass for his career.

Her grass court success matches her game. Although she is not top-10 in any relevant WTA service category this season, the American has a massive first serve. And Keys follows up her serve with aggressive groundstrokes that she can flatten out and that cut nicely through the court. She is usually able to effectively dominate from the baseline and keep her opponents moving.

With that said, Keys is “only” World No. 18 because she may lack consistency from the ground. The unforced errors can pile up for the American, and she is not the best mover either. This mediocre move affects Keys’ ability to defend and counter.

Sabalenka vs Keys Pick

Sabalenka and Keys will both try to control the baseline and maintain an edge in court positioning. However, Sabalenka does everything just a little bit better than Keys.

Statistically, and in terms of shot reliability, Sabalenka’s serve is a step above Keys’. The American has won less than 50% of her second-serve points in her last three matches, which is problematic given Sabalenka’s aggression on second-serve returns.

In addition, Sabalenka has more control over her aggressive groundstrokes compared to Keys. The Belarusian is able to hit targets with better consistency compared to Keys, and at least in 2023, her ground game is less likely to break down under pressure.

Sabalenka should be the one in charge of the baseline, forcing Keys on the defensive, which is a position the American doesn’t want to be in.

Finally, Keys has been playing a lot of tennis lately, and Sabalenka is the fresher player of the two. When it comes to the players’ ability to defend and counterpunch, an area where Keys’ is already quite weak, it means some fatigue.

Pick: Sabalenka -2.5 games (-130)

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