Sometimes value leads to a winner like Wyndham Clark at the US Open, but other times it implodes and results in an outcome that becomes Thomas Detry at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
It’s hard to defend my Detry choice, but I will always try to find wrong long shots and take a swing when the opportunity presents itself.
I will try to get back on track in the DFS market as I don’t see much value in the betting list. But let’s talk about a handful of golfers who landed on either side of the equation through two rounds.
If you haven’t already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is published every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Overachievers
I tried to avoid some of the more obvious fade candidates in an attempt to sidestep an article that states the obvious. Every name included below wins by more than five shots, according to my model.
Taylor Moore (+8.29 shots higher than expected)
I don’t think Taylor Moore is as natural a fade candidate as some of the names on this list. Moore’s position on the leaderboard will be where the massive disparity enters the mix as he overcomes his short game by 8.29 strokes.
It’s worth noting that Moore has found a way to get off the tee during his two rounds. That should have been marginally expected for a golfer who cracked the top 35 in my model of expected strokes gained off-the-tee pre-event, although the problem stems from the fairly predictable iron play that caused him to lose nearly two more strokes field on Friday.
I’m not necessarily looking to take him up in head-to-head matchups because of his positive trajectory in my data. Still, that doesn’t mean I’m rushing to the board to support him.
My data thinks Moore needs an overhaul in how he’s hitting if he wants to walk out of Detroit with the title. Nevertheless, the general intrigue my math has had on him all week is predictive enough that he lands as nothing more than a DFS fade that will hopefully regress to the mean come Saturday.
Adam Hadwin (+7.23 Shoot larger than expected)
It pains me to include Adam Hadwin on this list because my pre-tournament data pushed him up the board and into a position that pushed the 35-year-old as one of the last cuts not to make my direct card. Hadwin eventually landed as one of my top seven board exposures in DFS contests, but it’s hard to call his hitting anything but poor through two rounds.
The Canadian has failed to crack the top 100 on either day in strokes gained combined off-the-tee and approach, and his 97th place recalculation for ‘Baseline Putt + ATG Score’ presents a selection that has performed at a level , who should have missed the weekend.
In short, it feels like something is about to burst.
MJ Daffue (+5.75 Shoot larger than expected)
MJ Daffue has often been a name that DFS users have liked as a cheap option near the bottom of the board.
Perhaps this is one of the more obvious examples of fade in this story, but his 107th place in expected score through two days saw him overcome by over 80 spots in the rankings. It’s not as egregious as what we’ve seen from Andrew Landry or Matthias Schwab, but I’ll look to fade all three of them over the weekend.
Underperforming
These answers are a little more straightforward.
Max Homa (should be 14 places better in the ranking)
We are now working on a stretch of three tournaments where Max Homa’s play is not equal to the rankings.
Back-to-back missed cuts at the Travelers and US Open were nullified by two of the most significant underachievers in the field. While this performance isn’t quite as outlandish as the other events (an expected 15th place compared to 29th), it continues that he doesn’t overperform on any day. That has to change – and will change in a big way – when he makes a few putts. I wouldn’t be shocked if it comes on Saturday.
Alex Smalley (should be 20 places better in the rankings)
Alex Smalley has gone from a golfer who was overpriced and overowned pre-event to one who is still overpriced but wildly under the radar because no one wants to use him for the labor costs.
My model has seen him steadily climb over the first two days and he is now a top 15 head-to-head value on the board.
It may be time for Smalley to put in a better day on the greens, which could generate a top-10 score if the pieces come together.
Greyson Sigg (Should only be 2 spots better, but pre-tournament profile gives boost)
Instead of playing the lower ranked names that have already emerged and moved up the rankings, I prefer to pivot to an option like Greyson Sigg.
You won’t find anything in his tournament profile that suggests the ceiling is as high as my model will offer, but the math in my sheet has Sigg as the 29th rated head-to-head commodity on the board.
That lands just below Adam Svensson and Justin Lower in the $6,000 section on DraftKings, making all three men intriguing as they look for dart options.
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