Who is the most clutch QB in the NFL? Which QB do you want with the ball in his hands with the game on the line? These are probably debates you’ve heard before, where people spit out a list that looks identical to the list of best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Well, this exercise will be a little different. I let the numbers do the talking to answer these age-old questions. I used two stats:
- QB conversion rate on game-tying or go-ahead in the fourth quarter and overtime
- Expected points added (EPA) per plays in these situations (looks at the value added on all plays between rushes, passes, sacks and fumbles)
Basically, how often does a QB lead his team down the field successfully in do-or-die situations and how does he perform on those drives. I split these numbers between a QBs career in the regular season, career in the playoffs and performance in 2022. All of these were balanced and used to come up with this top 10 list of the most clutch QBs in the NFL.
Final disclaimer. I only looked at the 25 current starting QBs with NFL experience. So rookies and other projected starters with only a few starts (like Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell) weren’t considered.
Without further:
Jared Goff just beat out Derek Carr for the final spot on this list. He converted on 5 of 11 matching or go-ahead drives late in 2022, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. He was also third in EPA per game in those situations. His career numbers in the clutch are average, but he was carried by a bounceback year last season.
In particular, he threw a late game-winning touchdown pass on the road against the Jets, and led a game-winning drive in the final regular-season game at Lambeau Field, outscoring Aaron Rodgers. If there’s one throw that got away, it was a missed deep ball on Thanksgiving that could have given Detroit a win against the Bills. Instead, Detroit settled for a field goal and Josh Allen played completely.
Regular season conversion rate |
13 |
2022 conversion rate |
5 |
Endgame conversion rate |
8 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
19 |
2022 EPA/play |
3 |
9. Aaron Rodgers
If this list were based solely on what a QB has done in his career, Rodgers’ resume would certainly put him in the top 3, but my formula equally weights career performance and 2022, and Rodgers is coming off the worst season of his career. That extended to play in the clutch, where Rodgers notably came up short on potential game-winning drives in both games against the Lions, the latter of which would have gotten Green Bay in the playoffs.
Rodgers converted on just 6 of 18 potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime last season. He still cracks the top 10 thanks to a laundry list of clutch plays in his career. He has converted on 9 of 16 of those clutch drives in the playoffs, second best among current starters to only Mahomes. His Hail Mary’s to Richard Rodgers and Jeff Janis, plus the iconic sideline throw to Jared Cook in the playoffs will never be forgotten.
Regular season conversion rate |
8 |
2022 conversion rate |
12 |
Endgame conversion rate |
2 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
6 |
2022 EPA/play |
18 |
Dak Prescott’s stock is down right now after leading the NFL in interceptions last year and failing to put Dallas on his shoulders in back-to-back playoff losses to the 49ers in the last two postseasons. He has converted on just 3 of 9 potential game-tying or game-tying layups in the fourth quarter or overtime of his playoff career. His playoff resume is lacking, but he has been solid throughout the regular season in the clutch department, ranking in the top 10 in conversion rates in his career and in 2022.
Regular season conversion rate |
6 |
2022 conversion rate |
7 |
Endgame conversion rate |
10 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
7 |
2022 EPA/play |
16 |
Jimmy Garoppolo is probably higher on this list than you expected, and full disclosure, some credit goes to his supporting cast. His high ranking is driven by a top 5 ranking in clutch EPA per game in both his regular season career and in 2022. Notably, he is averaging 8.9 yards per carry. fourth-quarter pass attempts or overtime on potential game-tying or go-ahead drives. One of his best moments includes leading a 49ers’ game-tying touchdown drive in the two-minute drill in the 2021 regular-season finale at the Rams. San Francisco won that game in overtime to make the playoffs.
His shortcomings have been evident in the playoffs, where he has converted on 1 in 5 potential matchups or go-ahead drives late in games.
Regular season conversion rate |
11 |
2022 conversion rate |
12 |
Endgame conversion rate |
11 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
4 |
2022 EPA/play |
5 |
Joe Burrow cemented his status as “Joe Cool” with thrilling victories in each of his first three matchups against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. His match-tying or go-ahead drive chance conversation rates are at least 40 percent across the board: regular-season career, playoff career and in 2022. He’s top 10 among current starters in all three categories.
His clutch resume isn’t perfect, though. The Bengals failed to score on their final five drives of the Super Bowl loss to the Rams. They also failed to score on their final two drives of the most recent AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs.
Regular season conversion rate |
10 |
2022 conversion rate |
6 |
Endgame conversion rate |
9 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
13 |
2022 EPA/play |
4 |
5. Josh Allen
The Bills shook off the “can’t win close games” narrative in 2022 thanks to some heroics from Josh Allen on clutch drives against the Ravens, Chiefs and Lions. His throw to Stefon Diggs to put Buffalo in field goal range on Thanksgiving is one that few in the world can pull off.
Allen also went toss-for-throw with Patrick Mahomes in one of the biggest playoff games in NFL history, a Chiefs 42-36 win in the 2021 divisional playoffs. Allen can climb higher on this list with more consistency and better decision making. His overtime interception in a loss to the Vikings in 2022 comes to mind in that department.
Regular season conversion rate |
4 |
2022 conversion rate |
9 |
Endgame conversion rate |
3 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
8 |
2022 EPA/play |
13 |
4. Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson’s electrifying play has yet to translate to the postseason, where he doesn’t have much of a sample size, but it has been among the league’s best in the regular season. He has converted on 51% of potential scrimmage or pass drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of his regular season career. The only current starting QBs with higher rates are Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes.
He flashed his dual-threat value in clutch situations early in 2021, beating the Chiefs in Week 2 primarily with his legs (two fourth-quarter touchdown runs and game-sealing fourth-down run) and the Colts in Week 5 with his arm (three fourth-quarter touchdown passes and 19 OT points in a win).
He didn’t perform well enough in those situations in 2022 when Baltimore blew big leads to the Dolphins, Bills, Giants and Jaguars, but that should change in 2023 with a better supporting cast and new offensive coordinator.
Regular season conversion rate |
3 |
2022 conversion rate |
3 |
Endgame conversion rate |
Not qualified |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
11 |
2022 EPA/play |
10 |
To steal a viral phrase from Kirk Cousins: “You like that!” Cousins’ clutch career has been so much more than the 24-point comeback he led in 2015 that led to that quote. He lands third on this list after being Mr. Clutch in the 2022 season, converting on an NFL-high 71% (12-17) of potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime.
He’s part of the reason the Vikings set or tied NFL records in the following categories in 2022
- Biggest comeback in NFL history (33 points)
- Most one-score wins in a season (11)
- Most comeback wins in a season (10)
- Most fourth quarter comeback wins in a season (8)
- Most 10+ Point Fourth Quarter Comeback Wins in a Season (4)
Cousins also drove in eight game-winning drives, tying an NFL record shared with Matthew Stafford in 2016. His throw to set up Minnesota’s game-winning field goal in overtime at Buffalo was among his best of the season.
Unfortunately, Cousins’ season will be remembered for his final throw, this one missing well off the chains in the Vikings’ playoff loss to the Giants. As you can see from the notes above, he offers a lot more in the clutch than just his last throw.
Regular season conversion rate |
12 |
2022 conversion rate |
1 |
Endgame conversion rate |
4 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
14 |
2022 EPA/play |
2 |
2. Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa cooked in the clutch until he was slowed by multiple head injuries last season. He actually threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter in a late, close loss to the Packers in Week 16 after suffering a concussion earlier in the contest. Despite an off day skewing his numbers, he’s still converted on 11 of 20 potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in late, close games in his career, the second-best rate in the league behind Patrick Mahomes.
His clutch credentials include four fourth-quarter touchdown passes in a 21-point comeback win against the Ravens in 2022. Also, don’t forget his walk-off touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith in the national championship game. If the “clutch gene” exists, it’s hard to argue against Tagovailoa.
Regular season conversion rate |
2 |
2022 conversion rate |
12 |
Endgame conversion rate |
Not qualified |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
2 |
2022 EPA/play |
9 |
1. Patrick Mahomes
When it comes to clutch QB plays, there’s Patrick Mahomes and there’s everyone else. He leads all current starting QBs in virtually every clutch category. He has converted on 59% of potential game-tying or go-ahead runs in the fourth quarter or overtime of his career in the regular season. That’s the best in the league and well above his closest contemporaries, Josh Allen (44%) and Joe Burrow (41%). He has converted 65% (11 for 17) of those chances in the playoffs, also best in the league.
He further cemented himself as the best quarterback in the game (and most clutch) with a first-down scramble on a bad ankle to set up the game-winning field goal in the AFC Championship game against the Bengals. He had another long game on the game-winning drive in the Super Bowl win against the Eagles. He also had just one incompletion in the second half of that Super Bowl.
He has proven time and time again in his career, regardless of the deficit, how much time is left on the clock or the injury, that he can perform some kind of miracle. The Chiefs’ overtime-forcing drive in their instant classic win against the Bills marked the latest kickoff (13 seconds left) for a game-tying or game-tying drive in playoff history. The man has a career record of 14-10 when trailing by double digits at any point in a game. Just remarkable.
Regular season conversion rate |
1 |
2022 conversion rate |
2 |
Endgame conversion rate |
1 |
Regular Season EPA/Game |
1 |
2022 EPA/play |
1 |