Run it back, blow it up or in between, 3 paths the Raptors could take

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The Toronto Raptors currently sit in a better position than many of the NBA’s 29 other clubs in terms of talent. There is an NBA talent on the roster in Pascal Siakam. 2021-22 League Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes. A former all-star in Fred VanVleet (though he’s now an unrestricted free agent). One of the league’s premier defensemen in OG Anunoby and a host of other solid players, led by big men Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher, as well as free agents Jakob Poeltl (who most expect to return) and Gary Trent Jr. (which is smaller) will likely remain but could be moved for assets via the sign and trade route). The 13th pick of what is perceived to be a strong NBA Draft also comes next Thursday.

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That said, one would have to squint awfully hard to spot a path to relevance for this group. A handful of decent assets doesn’t make a contender, and Masai Ujiri has spoken often during his tenure in Toronto about how much he doesn’t like his team sitting in the mushy middle.

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That’s why everyone is wondering what Ujiri and Co. have to do in the next few weeks when the draft and free agency land.

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Here’s a breakdown of some of the options (note, we’re assuming Trent Jr. will opt out of his $18.58 million player option in the next few days):

DRIVE IT BACK

We’re talking about re-signing VanVleet, Poeltl and Trent Jr. and not exchange with Siakam or Anunoby. This may even involve trading No. 13 picks and payroll for more immediate help.

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This seems like an extremely unrealistic course, but you never know. The front office has been patient, believing that much of last season’s sourness and underwhelming, selfish play could go away with a brand new coaching staff and with the team’s top guards not distracted by free agency (that said, both Siakam and Anunoby would theoretically be distracted by their impending free agency next summer if they don’t ink contract extensions).

There are also financial parameters to consider when this plan is termed unlikely. As in, it would be nearly impossible to stay under the NBA’s $162 million luxury tax if everyone returns (assuming VanVleet’s next deal starts around $30 million and Poeltl and Trent Jr.’s around $20 million and Thad Young is bought out for $1 million and the 13th pick is retained). And it would even be with a short list. Do you really think ownership wants to pay the taxes for this group, especially after all the revenue lost to COVID and the Tampa Bay years? No chance.

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HOCKEY POKEY

Like in, one foot in, one foot out.

This would involve either a trade involving Siakam or Anunoby, plus not keeping either VanVleet or Trent, or both a trade and one of those free agents not returning.

The benefit of this approach would be to allow Barnes to step more into the starting role, avoid potential luxury tax issues either next year or when the restrictive new collective bargaining agreement takes effect, and perhaps diversify the roster. All that while remaining a favorite to at worst host a play-in game again, with an advantage of hosting a playoff round if everything falls apart.

Cynically, this is what would excite ownership, but probably not anyone else. Something competitive, fiscally responsible, unlikely to fall flat on your face like last year’s group, but also not a favorite to win more than one round of the playoffs, barring some kind of minor miracle. With some much needed assets on the way via the one being unloaded.

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THE WHOLE MONTH

We’re talking about trading at least one of Siakam or Anunoby for significant draft capital/prospects and letting two of VanVleet, Poeltl and Trent Jr. go for either nothing or whatever can be returned in a sign-and-trade or two.

This is the retool around Barnes, the 13th pick, all other picks acquired and maybe Anunoby. It’s not bottoming out because there will still be some talent on hand and because next year’s first-round draft pick has already been dealt to San Antonio, but it’s taking at least a year off from believing that you can possibly make a playoff series interesting. This would be the build around the youth approach with three highly respected development coaches on board in new head coach Darko Rajakovic, recently repatriated assistant coach Jama Mahlalela and incumbent Jim Sann helping everyone improve, especially Barnes.

On Twitter: @WolstatSun

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