The Giants’ good problem with two good tight ends

A year ago, Daniel Bellinger was a relatively unblemished fourth-round draft pick of the New York Giants in a deep tight end draft class, the sixth tight end selected. As the season began, however, Bellinger grew into a significant part of the Giants’ offense. Despite a horrific eye injury suffered in Jacksonville that caused him to miss five games, Bellinger finished fifth in receptions among his rookie counterparts with an outstanding 90.9% completion rate. Big things were expected from him in 2023.

Then the Giants traded for Darren Waller, a top five tight end when healthy, not to mention bolstering their wide receiver corps with Parris Campbell, Jalin Hyatt and others. Add them to Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard, and that’s a lot of mouths for Daniel Jones to feed. With only one ball to spread around, it’s natural to wonder if Bellinger’s role in 2023 will change to involve more blocking duties and fewer pass-catching opportunities. He was a capable blocker as a rookie, and his physical appearance at OTAs did nothing to create a different impression:

Some tight end needs to block for the Giants, and Waller is not that guy. Should Bellinger be mostly the blocking tight end now? Travis Kelce and George Kittle don’t think he should be, based on his work at their off-season program “Tight End University” the past two years.

Here’s Kelce mentioning Bellinger:

And here is Kittle:

Bellinger appears to be a wasted talent as primarily a blocking tight end.

Injuries are inevitable in the NFL, as the Giants know all too well from 2022, and so opportunities arise where there had been none before. Given Waller’s recent injury history, that can’t be ruled out. However, let’s imagine that the Giants have good injury luck for a change in 2023. Is it possible for a team with a top-notch tight end and a fairly deep group of wide receivers to also adequately capitalize on Bellinger’s value as a receiver? What precedents are there in recent NFL history for teams with two tight ends as important parts of the passing game?

Darren Waller as Raider

The obvious first question is how Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders‘ offense operated with Darren Waller. Waller had two healthy seasons as a Raider that showed him as an elite pass-catching tight end (2019, 2020). During those seasons, he was “the guy” for the Raiders. The other tight ends on the roster were purely an afterthought. Here are the 2019 and 2020 tight end stats for these teams:

Data from Pro Football Focus

Data from Pro Football Focus

With Waller being targeted 8-9 times a game, the other tight ends were lucky to see a ball come their way in any given week. During those seasons, the Raiders also had some good to very good wide receivers, perhaps not that different from the 2023 Giants’ receiving corps: Hunter Renfrow, Zay Jones, Tyrell Williams, Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs III. Getting balls to them as well as Waller left little for the other tight ends.

How can Bellinger be more than an afterthought as a receiving option this year?

Examples of teams that shared the ball between two tight ends

Let’s set the bar at 50 targets during the regular season, roughly three per game, as the threshold for a tight end who is a significant contributor as a receiver. In 2022, only one NFL team with two tight ends reached that threshold, Baltimore Ravens:

Data from Pro Football Focus

In a way, the Ravens are a good analog for the Giants: They have one of the best tight ends in the league in Mark Andrews, and their TE2 was rookie Isaiah Likely, who managed to see 56 balls despite the 110 that were targeted Andrews (a number similar to what Waller saw in his best seasons). The bad news, though, is that it only happened because the Ravens’ wide receiving corps last season was crippled by injuries, most notably to Rashod Bateman, likely their WR1, who played in just six games.

If we go back to 2021, we find another example in Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Data from Pro Football Focus

Future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski had 86 targets in his final season, leaving 50 for TE2 Cameron Brate. Unfortunately, Gronk’s number was so low and Brate’s number is so high only because he missed five games. The Giants hope this isn’t a good analogy for Waller and Bellinger.

Also in 2021 Cleveland Browns targeted tight ends Austin Hooper and David Njoku 58 and 53 times, respectively. That’s because neither tight end was an elite receiving option — not what we want to see the Giants emulate. In 2020, we have several examples of this kind, e.g Tennessee Titans with Jonnu Smith (63 receptions) and Anthony Firkser (50); and Los Angeles Ramswith Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee each being targeted 59 times.

However, there was one 2020 team that split the ball between two premier tight ends: The Philadelphia Eagleswith Zach Ertz getting 68 goals and Dallas Goedert getting 64. The team was in turmoil and Ertz was in the final nine of his career at the time (although he’s been pretty good since coming to Arizona Cardinals), but if you look at the previous season, when Ertz was still in his prime and Goedert was a second-year player, we see numbers that would make Giants fans pretty happy in 2023 if Waller and Bellinger were the names next to them:

Data from Pro Football Focus

Unfortunately, the gaudy tight end numbers hide the fact that the Eagles’ best options at wide receiver that year were Agholor and Alshon Jeffery. The Giants expect a lot more from their wide receivers this season.

You have to go back to 2016 Washington to find a team that had two good tight ends who each got a significant amount of work in the passing game (Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis) while also having a good wide receiver group (Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder):

Data from Pro Football Focus

That team was third in the NFL with 4,948 passing yards. Kirk Cousins ​​was the starting quarterback on that team, which went 8-7-1. The Giants are hoping for better than that, and in any case, the wide receivers were the primary targets on that team, not the tight ends.

If we go back even further, we find 2011 New England Patriotsthat had Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at their peak productivity:

Data from Pro Football Focus

Tom Brady was the one delivering those passes (5,235 yards that season), but what a group. That team did Super Bowlsure, but thanks in part to Chase Blackburn intercepting a pass intended for Gronkowski, they didn’t quite make it.

And in case you were wondering: In 2022, Travis Kelce was targeted 150 times, while TE2 Noah Fant saw 34 balls. George Kittle had just 80 goals for 49ers (he’s also one of the best blocking TEs in the NFL), but no other tight end was thrown to 10 times.

The bottom line: It’s uncommon to have two productive, often-targeted tight ends on a team that also has good wide receivers, but it’s possible.

Personnel groupings

Nick Falato, in his assessment of the 2023 Giants tight end room, referred to Waller and Bellinger as a “formidable 12-man package.” Here’s a breakdown of how Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka used different staff packages in 2022 and how successful they were, from Team formations app:

Data from @JosephJefe/Team Formations

In 2022, 12 personnel packages were the Giants’ second most frequent grouping (20% of the time, including looks with 2 wide receivers and 1 wide receiver). It was a distant second to the 11 staff group that was used two-thirds of the time. The Giants went 1-2-2 55% of the time. With Waller on the team, we can expect the 12 groupings to be much more common in 2023. (Note that even if a tight end lines up on the boundary and goes deep, as Waller will likely do a lot this season, it still registers as 12 man if Bellinger or another tight end is also on the field.).

The Giants weren’t as efficient in 12 last season, averaging just .054 expected points added per game. games (on average between the 1-2-2 and 1-2-1 groupings). It should get better in 2023. Bellinger proved to be excellent at finding open spots in zone defenses as a rookie (Tight End University must be a master class at doing that with Kelce and Kittle, two players who unbelievably always seem to be wide open and run things ). Working with Waller going deep and opening up the middle for Bellinger to find seams in the zone, this could be a common sight at MetLife.

Do the Giants’ 2023 opponents look like receiving tight ends?

According to Pro Football Focus’ preseason rankings of linebacker groups, the Giants will play against many linebacker groups this season that are expected to be weak: The Rams (No. 32), Eagles x2 (No. 31), Raiders (No. . 30), the Commanders x2 (No. 25) and the Cardinals (No. 23). It seems tailor-made for the Waller-Bellinger pairing. It’s surprising to see the Eagles near the bottom of any league-wide ranking, and second-year linebacker Nakobe Dean could be a good player this season. You have to have some kind of game plan against that formidable defense, though, and you could do worse than attacking the second level with two good tight ends before the pass rush can get to Jones.

The Giants will also play the best linebacker duo in the NFL, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, in Week 3 in San Francisco. Those two gave Daniel Jones fits in a 2020 thrashing at MetLife, and tight ends Evan Engram and Kaden Smith caught just four passes. The Giants will hope for better this time, but the 49ers defense promises to be a tough matchup for the Giants’ offense. The Giants will also face No. 4 New Orleans Saintswhich has two very good linebackers in Demario Davis and Pete Werner.

The most interesting thing about the Giants’ offense in 2022 was how Brian Daboll and Mike Kafaka adapted their game plans to the opponent and the personnel available each week. That was largely done by scheduling receivers open in the absence of elite physical traits and talent in the receiving corps. In 2023, they have more innate talent to work with, and opponents will surely plan to try to neutralize Waller. That can often give Daniel Bellinger the freedom to let opposing defenses pay off.

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