Getting the most value for every choice should be your goal every time you make a choice. It’s just a solid draft strategy. Knowing who to draft is great, but knowing when to take your guys is both an art and a science. Take your guy too early and you risk grabbing him at his ceiling and passing on other players who have more upside baked into their costs. Wait too long for your athlete and someone else can grab him.
We take a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practice mock drafts Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you’re looking for might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s streak of results will allow you to assess whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued, or overvalued relative to their ADP.
Which players do our selected analysts think will be late? Read on to see some of their favorite underrated draft targets. It’s fair to say the analysts are IN on Cam Akers at his current ADP.
Best Fantasy Football Draft Value Picks by ADP
Who is the best choice at RB based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
“Cam Akers at RB21, 61st overall. We crave workhorse usage for our running backs, and Akers comes off the board at the top of the sixth round despite being in line for a heavy role. Akers led the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks of the 2022 regular season, and ranked RB4 in half-point PPR scoring over that stretch. He had more than 100 rushing yards in each of his last three games. Akers averaged 19.2 touches over the Rams’ last six games and had a snap percentage of 72% or higher in five of those contests. His primary competition for touches will come from Zach Evans, a rookie drafted late in the sixth round, and Kyren Williams, whose 4.65 40-yard dash at 194 pounds gives him a 10th percentile speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Akers is a bargain at his current price.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Cam Akers is RB22 in ADP. Absurd. Akers eventually emerged as the team’s RB1 and finished the season as the RB4 for the final 6 weeks leading the NFL in rushing yards (85 yards/game). His high volume potential makes him an appealing option in fantasy football. Akers played every snap in the Rams’ season finale, and the team didn’t select any running backs until the sixth round of this year’s draft.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Cam Akers on RB21 generally doesn’t come without downsides, but ADP mitigates a good portion of that risk. Akers eventually won Sean McVay back, and the Rams need to run the football to prevent Matthew Stafford from being overmatched. With no clear threat to his workload, Akers is a solid value that could even scratch RB1 territory by season’s end.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Rashaad Penny (RB – PHI)
“Rashaad Penny’s RB2 upside with an RB4 price tag is a chef’s kiss. Miles Sanders proved last year that there is RB2 value to be had from the early down grinder role in the Eagles’ offense as he finished RB21 in fantasy points per game. match. It’s not a hot take to say that Penny is immeasurably more talented than Sanders as a rusher. Over the past two seasons among rushers with at least 50 attempts, Penny has been second and first in explosive run rate and eighth and ninth in missed tackles forced per. attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). Drafting Penny is an excellent pick to fit any roster.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
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Who is the top choice at WR based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?
Drake London (WR – ATL)
“Drake London at WR27, 52nd overall. That’s a sweet price for a uber-talented young receiver who had a solid 29.4% target percentage as a rookie and was targeted on 32.4% of his routes. In the final four games of Atlanta’s 2022 season, with Desmond Ridder replacing Marcus Mariota as the Falcons’ quarterback, London averaged 8.8 targets and 14.6 PPR points per game. game and 3.03 yards per route, as noted by PFF’s Jon Macri. Yes, that increase in production came when TE Kyle Pitts was hurt, but London and Pitts figure to combine for a massive target share in 2023 as the Falcons have few other credible pass catchers on the roster. Expect London to build on the unspectacular but promising surface stats (72-866-4) he posted as a rookie.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
“Brandon Aiyuk’s breakout potential was on full display last season, finishing as the WR15 with impressive yards per carry. route running and route participation. Career high in yards per route run at 1.82 and 96% route participation. He was just one of six players in 2022 to run a route on at least 96% of the team’s dropbacks. Without Deebo Samuel in the lineup for a stretch of games, Aiyuk averaged 13.2 points per game. game – fantasy WR1 numbers. Considering ADP prices, Aiyuk is an easy bet to beat his WR30 ranking.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)
“To be named Quentin Johnston as a WR4 is a ridiculous value that probably won’t hold. Johnston landed in arguably the best NFL situation for a rookie wide receiver. After that last statement, many will shake their heads, but let’s think about this briefly. Outside of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen flanking him, what’s the downside here? Kellen Moore will have one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL. Williams and Allen were posted last year and are not a lock to remain su nde into this season. Johnston could run weekly as a WR2 or, if tragedy strikes, WR1 in this offense. Add all of that on top of a player who can not only stretch the field, but also break tackles and create YAC at will, and we have screaming value in fantasy drafts.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
“Jerry Jeudy goes WR 22 off the board and will be the top target in the Broncos’ new offense under Sean Payton. Jeudy is entering his fourth season and this is probably the best potential return on his investment. After last year’s historic struggles, Payton needs to make this team more prepared and I have every confidence that he will and Jeudy will see enough targets to surpass this current ADP.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
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Who is the best choice at QB based on his current ADP and why?
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
“I don’t think there’s any flashy value at the position right now – the QB market seems pretty efficient. I’ll give a lukewarm nod to Justin Fields at QB6, 44th overall, which seems like a very fair price for a quarterback who ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns and has plenty of room to grow as a passer. The Bears have upgraded Fields’ pass-catching group and offensive line. The young QB cleared 200 passing yards in just two games last season and I think we can expect a lot more from him as a passer in 2023.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
“Geno Smith. Seahawks QB is the most underrated QB in terms of signal callers selected from top-10 offenses based on aggregate team ADP. I don’t understand his lack of hype. In his first year as Seattle’s fully entrenched starter, he was fantasy QB6, averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8).
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
“I’ll keep pounding the pavement for Daniel Jones in 2023. Jones posted a QB10 finish in 2022, ranking 15th in passing yards and 14th in pass attempts. Those grades are increasing this season. Last year, Brian Daboll was willing to turn up the pace and pass volume late in the season as the wide receiver room stabilized. In Weeks 12-18, the Giants were eighth in neutral script pace and 12th in neutral pass rate. Jones’ rushing floor isn’t going anywhere. With the added passing volume this season and a true number one weapon in Darren Waller, Jones has top-five upside at the quarterback position.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)
“4.3K yards and about 30 TDs sounds like a pretty good late fantasy QB. Well, that guy is Kirk Cousins. Yes, he’ll have some bad outings here and there, but he has a full set of weapons in 2023 with TJ Hockenson for a full season and Jordan Addison in the fold along with KJ Osborn and a guy named Justin Jefferson. Cousins is QB12 off the board and more than a consolation QB. I’m fine with him and won multiple leagues was with him under center last year itself.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
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